11 Comments

can rising interest rates backfire the Fed as mere rates don't rein in supply-side constraints

Expand full comment

You even created this table that shows that market is growing during rate hikes. Yet all the other content is contradicting the table, including the title "party is over". This is hilarious. How the market at -20% only turns even data analysts to irrational state.

Expand full comment

Hi Nail,

It's all relative as I explained in the article.

The stock market has returned an average of 9% CAGR during periods of rate increase. But this is much lower when compared to the 23.6% CAGR when the fed rates were zero. Adding to this, you can see how the growth stocks have performed.

Hence the title. Hope that clears it up :)

Expand full comment

I think the tittle is correct. Party is over but the chill out lounge still continues :)

Expand full comment

Good article, thanks.. I fully agree will with your vision, including raise in volatility.. Don't know if i am allowed to ask this here, but which kind of value stocks would you say are going to perform better for a value portfolio?

Expand full comment

Hi Als,

I don't recommend individual stocks in this newsletter. For benchmark I have considered I shares Growth and Value ETF (Growth ETF - IVW, Value ETF - IVE). That's a good place to start your research!

Expand full comment

👍

Expand full comment

No, party is starting... It's time to put reverse psychology into play, hoping that you had a good risk management and left money aside during the las year or so. Choose good growth stocks (value ones if you prefer, of course) and apply a good DCA strategy... the growth market is 30-40-50-60-70-80% at a discount! But that's me and my reverse psychology... you can buy when all retail starts buying again. Thanks for the article.

Expand full comment

You are welcome Jorge! Yes, you definitely can DCA into the growth stocks if you can tolerate the volatility.

Also, you might need a pretty long holding period for those growth stocks to finally come back to their previous highs!

Expand full comment

My point is that is could be too late now to start investing in value rather than growth. Growth is very cheap if we compare to February 2021 prices (probably we are near the bottom in many cases). Are you sure value will outperform growth in the next 2-5 years after the recent massive growth drop, including crypto? Time is crucial and I believe your article could be some months late, maybe not... no offense. Thanks again

Expand full comment

BTW... growth middle cap party ended around February 2021, more than one year ago, large cap (Apple, etc.) some months later.

Expand full comment