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We started Market Sentiment at the peak of the 2021 zero-interest hype cycle as a place for investors to rationally evaluate investment ideas. We curate some of the best ideas, test their validity, and distill them into actionable insights. What started as a germ of an idea on Reddit is now read by more than 40,000 investors, financial advisors, and investment analysts.
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Consider a Japanese worker who started working in 1980. Assuming a 30-year career & $1K annual investment into Nikkei 225, by the time he retired in 2010, the $30K invested would have turned into $20K. A -31% return over 30-years.
Do investors benefit from the Lindy Effect? To test this, we evaluated the performance of 70 companies that were 100+ years old and benchmarked them against the S&P 500. Here are the results:
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Where do millionaires invest their money?
One of the most overlooked aspects of investing is Shannon's Demon: Using it, we can consistently generate positive returns from two uncorrelated assets having zero expected long-term returns.
Based on the last 95 years of data, a stock that joins the top 10 largest U.S. stocks had an annualized return of 20% in excess of the market 5 years before joining.
But once they joined, they underperformed the market by 0.9% in the next 5 years.
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Disclaimer
This publication’s authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing produced under the Market Sentiment brand should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research before investing.