My prediction for 2040 is Microsoft. It's mainly based on two things.
1. The Lindy effect: A theorised phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. (Not a very strong argument)
2. Enterprise customers - Microsoft generates a lot of busine…
My prediction for 2040 is Microsoft. It's mainly based on two things.
1. The Lindy effect: A theorised phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. (Not a very strong argument)
2. Enterprise customers - Microsoft generates a lot of business from enterprise customers and these are extremely sticky. I don't see Excel, Windows and Outlook being replaced anytime soon.
Apple is a close second due to their ecosystem but for me they are one bad iPhone away from tough times.
Fair enough. My argument against Amazon is that I have not seen a single person who is happy working there. The culture is brutal and I guess most of the talent would leave once the stock rally stops + Bezos has left.
A sweet trillion dollar spinout in AWS might make them stick around a bit :) Also (highly speculative) the era of lovely working conditions as commensurate with valuable companies might've been a short-lived aberration in Google. Everyone else across eras were relatively brutal, or at least matter of fact.
Agreed. I actually think there's a chance Google, Amazon, and Meta (through re-invention) could be in the top 10 then too, based on moat and (presently) tolerated monopoly.
A feature of laissez-faire capitalism (the right's favorite flavor of capitalism) is that the big get bigger and the rich get richer. Doesn't mean competition doesn't exist or that the big can't stumble, just that the playing field may be slanted.
*edit: I can also see a world where NVDA is near one of its cyclical peaks (as in 2021) and is back in the top 10 in 2040
I mean if google willing to adopt the idea of Web3 (which I highly doubt since they earn revenue from your data). Once Presearch have gathered large enough data, I bet there would be more people using it, since you get rewarded. Also browser like Brave would definitely be the future, since anything crypto related are in a way future technology that still have larger space to evolve into something big.
Microsoft's enterprise business definitely puts it higher than Apple but I still see both companies as possibly being in the "too big to fail" category. 52% of Apple's 2021 revenue came from sales, meaning not only new products are needed but popular products (iPhones, iPads, iMacs, etc.) are key for their success. The recent report about iPhone 14 demand is not promising but I am optimistic that Apple will be able to push through the tough economic conditions that are affecting competitors and the global economy.
My prediction for 2040 is Microsoft. It's mainly based on two things.
1. The Lindy effect: A theorised phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. (Not a very strong argument)
2. Enterprise customers - Microsoft generates a lot of business from enterprise customers and these are extremely sticky. I don't see Excel, Windows and Outlook being replaced anytime soon.
Apple is a close second due to their ecosystem but for me they are one bad iPhone away from tough times.
I agree, though Amazon is about equal due to AWS.
Fair enough. My argument against Amazon is that I have not seen a single person who is happy working there. The culture is brutal and I guess most of the talent would leave once the stock rally stops + Bezos has left.
A sweet trillion dollar spinout in AWS might make them stick around a bit :) Also (highly speculative) the era of lovely working conditions as commensurate with valuable companies might've been a short-lived aberration in Google. Everyone else across eras were relatively brutal, or at least matter of fact.
Agreed. I actually think there's a chance Google, Amazon, and Meta (through re-invention) could be in the top 10 then too, based on moat and (presently) tolerated monopoly.
A feature of laissez-faire capitalism (the right's favorite flavor of capitalism) is that the big get bigger and the rich get richer. Doesn't mean competition doesn't exist or that the big can't stumble, just that the playing field may be slanted.
*edit: I can also see a world where NVDA is near one of its cyclical peaks (as in 2021) and is back in the top 10 in 2040
I mean if google willing to adopt the idea of Web3 (which I highly doubt since they earn revenue from your data). Once Presearch have gathered large enough data, I bet there would be more people using it, since you get rewarded. Also browser like Brave would definitely be the future, since anything crypto related are in a way future technology that still have larger space to evolve into something big.
Microsoft's enterprise business definitely puts it higher than Apple but I still see both companies as possibly being in the "too big to fail" category. 52% of Apple's 2021 revenue came from sales, meaning not only new products are needed but popular products (iPhones, iPads, iMacs, etc.) are key for their success. The recent report about iPhone 14 demand is not promising but I am optimistic that Apple will be able to push through the tough economic conditions that are affecting competitors and the global economy.